Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic

[Hooked]

Posted on FB by Konstantinos Farsalinos and the link is supplied by him. It makes for very interesting reading. What it essentially says is that if lockdown is instituted too soon and for a long time, post-lockdown will be worse, because the population has not built up immunity.


Konstantinos Farsalinos
Yesterday at 5:02 PM ·
For those interested, here is the Harvard study on the course of the epidemic and social detachment measures. It is impressive what it says, that the harder and successful measures you take in the beginning, the worse and bigger the next wave will be (if you do not take measures).

To make it clear that this does not mean that the first stage lock down is wrong. What they say is the natural consequence of the fact that a very successful first stage means that almost the entire population is epínosos (that is sensitive to the virus). The Overall and in-depth treatment of the epidemic is a serious and difficult balance exercise...

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%20distancing%20strategies%20for%20curbing%20the%20COVID-19%20epidemic.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

[Timwis]

Posted on FB by Konstantinos Farsalinos and the link is supplied by him. It makes for very interesting reading. What it essentially says is that if lockdown is instituted too soon and for a long time, post-lockdown will be worse, because the population has not built up immunity.


Konstantinos Farsalinos
Yesterday at 5:02 PM ·
For those interested, here is the Harvard study on the course of the epidemic and social detachment measures. It is impressive what it says, that the harder and successful measures you take in the beginning, the worse and bigger the next wave will be (if you do not take measures).

To make it clear that this does not mean that the first stage lock down is wrong. What they say is the natural consequence of the fact that a very successful first stage means that almost the entire population is epínosos (that is sensitive to the virus). The Overall and in-depth treatment of the epidemic is a serious and difficult balance exercise...

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%20distancing%20strategies%20for%20curbing%20the%20COVID-19%20epidemic.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Problem is opinions are like arseholes, everyone's got one. The UK delayed lockdown and got slaughtered by the international community, when it all is over it will show which countries got it right but things are so much easier in hindsight!

 

[Silver]

Thanks for sharing this @Hooked
Very interesting

I haven’t read the article but thank you for your summary!

I can understand the sentiments but I feel that one also needs to factor in the capacity of hospitals to determine when to start lockdown. I agree this is a very complex balancing act. So many issues to consider.

 

[Ruwaid]

Problem is opinions are like arseholes, everyone's got one. The UK delayed lockdown and got slaughtered by the international community, when it all is over it will show which countries got it right but things are so much easier in hindsight!

@Timwis China seemed to have nailed it...think its like their 7th day with no new cases...they have all went back to business but what is so shocking and concerning and even suspicious...they have also reopened the Wet Markets all and the very same one that they SUSPECT the virus originated from. Still selling live animals as food. Thousands flocking in after reopening! WTF!!

 

[Hooked]

@Timwis China seemed to have nailed it...think its like their 7th day with no new cases...they have all went back to business but what is so shocking and concerning and even suspicious...they have also reopened the Wet Markets all and the very same one that they SUSPECT the virus originated from. Still selling live animals as food. Thousands flocking in after reopening! WTF!!

But in another city they are taking steps to improve:
Shenzhen becomes first Chinese city to ban eating cats and dogs
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/02/asia/shenzhen-cats-dogs-ban-scli-intl/index.html

The law comes into effect on 1 May only

 

[Grand Guru]

It’s a patience game. Trying to strike a balance between keeping a functional economy with all the barrier measures in place is not realistic. The lockdown is a sort of shock measure to slow down the spread but we can’t maintain it for an extensive period of time. The second advantage to it is that it will eventually raise awareness about the gravity of the situation and would push people to stay alert and keep social distancing and hand hygiene reflexes in mind when they return back to work.
There is no right or wrong. Every country is dealing with the epidemic while observing, learning and adjusting its measures. We haven’t had a similar experience in our lifetime so it’s unfortunately a trial and error approach with serious limitations in the knowledge and in the resources.
As @Ruwaid rightfully said, it is no secret that China filters the information that gets out of its borders. No one believes them on the number of cases nor deaths... History will tell.

 

[Silver]

Well said @Grand Guru
Appreciate your feedback on these things

 

[Hooked]

It’s a patience game. Trying to strike a balance between keeping a functional economy with all the barrier measures in place is not realistic. The lockdown is a sort of shock measure to slow down the spread but we can’t maintain it for an extensive period of time. The second advantage to it is that it will eventually raise awareness about the gravity of the situation and would push people to stay alert and keep social distancing and hand hygiene reflexes in mind when they return back to work.
There is no right or wrong. Every country is dealing with the epidemic while observing, learning and adjusting its measures. We haven’t had a similar experience in our lifetime so it’s unfortunately a trial and error approach with serious limitations in the knowledge and in the resources.
As @Ruwaid rightfully said, it is no secret that China filters the information that gets out of its borders. No one believes them on the number of cases nor deaths... History will tell.

China filters all information - even (or should I say, especially) within its borders.