Lockdown diaries - COVID-19 matters!
- Thread starter Grand Guru
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- lockdown
At least we are allowed to zoll.
Regards
Regards
DAY :458 04.18- We are in lockdown for 1 year , 3 months and one day.
Fortunately I had a feeling in my bxlls this booze ban was on the cards ...
Gin -check
Budweisers -check
''Keep on walking'' -check
Stuff for Springbokkies -check
Absolut -check
so let's see which is longer lasting ...
Fortunately I had a feeling in my bxlls this booze ban was on the cards ...
Gin -check
Budweisers -check
''Keep on walking'' -check
Stuff for Springbokkies -check
Absolut -check
so let's see which is longer lasting ...
Here's some interesting reading since we have some time on our hands..
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-infected-are-vaccinated
Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias
Delta has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being more transmissible and preliminary evidence suggesting its ability to escape natural immunity, unvaccinated people and populations are in trouble.
The statistic that’s concerning most (and that’s in the news) is a detail the Director General of the Health Ministry of Israel (Professor Chevy Levy) said during a radio interview. When asked how many of the new COVID19 cases had been vaccinated, Levy said that, “we are looking at a rate of 40 to 50%”.
This must mean the Delta variant is escaping our vaccines, right? When I started digging into the numbers, though, this might not be as alarming as it seems.
This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.
The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.
Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:
-100 adult community
-4 COVID19 cases
-50% of cases were among the vaccinated
With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.
Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.
We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…
1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?
2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?
3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.
Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.
Stay tuned.
Love, YLE
Here is the link to the newsletter with all the links and more pictures: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-infected-are-vaccinated
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-infected-are-vaccinated
Israel, 50% of infected are vaccinated, and base rate bias
Delta has arrived in Israel, and with its arrival, cases are increasing (albeit relatively small). And, this is expected. We’ve seen it in the UK. and India. and Indonesia. And South Africa. And Russia. No country is 100% vaccinated. And this coupled with Delta being more transmissible and preliminary evidence suggesting its ability to escape natural immunity, unvaccinated people and populations are in trouble.
The statistic that’s concerning most (and that’s in the news) is a detail the Director General of the Health Ministry of Israel (Professor Chevy Levy) said during a radio interview. When asked how many of the new COVID19 cases had been vaccinated, Levy said that, “we are looking at a rate of 40 to 50%”.
This must mean the Delta variant is escaping our vaccines, right? When I started digging into the numbers, though, this might not be as alarming as it seems.
This is likely an example of base rate bias in epidemiology (it’s called base rate fallacy in other fields). Professor Levy said that “half of infected people were vaccinated”. This language is important because it’s very different than “half of vaccinated people were infected”. And this misunderstanding happens all. the. time.
The more vaccinated a population, the more we’ll hear of the vaccinated getting infected. For example, say there’s a community that’s 100% vaccinated. If there’s transmission, we know breakthrough cases will happen. So, by definition, 100% of outbreak cases will be among the vaccinated. It will just be 100% out of a smaller number.
Cue Israel. They are one of the global leaders in vaccinations; 85% of Israeli adults are vaccinated. So, say we have the following scenario:
-100 adult community
-4 COVID19 cases
-50% of cases were among the vaccinated
With an infection rate among the vaccinated of 2% and infection rate of 13% among the unvaccinated, this would give us an efficacy rate of 85%. This is pretty darn close to the clinical trial efficacy rate, meaning the Pfizer vaccine is still working against Delta.
Unfortunately, this gets more complicated. We know the original Israeli outbreaks were in two schools. Because the vast majority of kids in Israel are not vaccinated (only 2-4% because they were just approved), imbalance is introduced. But, I ran the numbers and as long as at least 90% of the adults in the original outbreak were vaccinated, we know the vaccine is still working against Delta. 91% isn’t a farfetched number as teachers (at least in the US) are vaccinated at a much higher rate than the general public.
We need other fundamental details before we start to worry too. Like…
1. What did these outbreaks look like? How many people were at risk? How many people infected? What proportion of the infected were adults vs. kids?
2. How were the cases caught? Was there surveillance testing at the schools? In other words, were these asymptomatic cases? If not, what was the severity of the cases? What was the severity of the vaccinated cases?
3. Were vaccinated cases fully or partially vaccinated? We know 1 dose of vaccines doesn’t work well against Delta.
Bottom Line: I have more questions than answers. And we will (hopefully) get answers to these questions soon. But, there’s a strong possibility that this is a textbook example of base rate bias. Which means I’m optimistic that this is just further evidence the vaccine works against Delta on an individual level. However, this does NOT mean that we shouldn’t worry about Delta on a population-level.
Stay tuned.
Love, YLE
Here is the link to the newsletter with all the links and more pictures: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/israel-50-of-infected-are-vaccinated
Just a refresher course :
The following places are closed to the public:
The following places are closed to the public:
- Gyms and fitness centres
- Flea markets
- Fêtes and bazaars
- Night clubs
- Casinos
- Taverns and shebeens, except for off-site consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages
- Restaurants, except for off-site consumption of food and non-alcoholic beverages
- Conferencing, exhibitions, and entertainment facilities
- Theatres and cinemas
- Museums, libraries, archives, and galleries
- Visits to old age homes and care facilities are prohibited
- Other premises may be closed if there is a risk of anyone being exposed to Covid-19 at the place in question.
Wish i had your confidence over 85% of all adults in the UK have had at least one dose of the vaccine and comfortably over 50% have had both doses yet today we recorded the most infections since the 30th Jan which was at the height of the second wave, people who are fully vaccinated are still contracting it!
But what what does the hospital numbers look like? Are people still needing hospital care or is recovery at home good enough?
That’s really worrisome @Timwis. I think we are claiming victory a little too early…. At least with our 1% of people fully vaccinated we can’t have any false hopes…
That's the big question as we get a two to three week lag between rise in infections and a rise in hospital admissions and deaths! But when the experts are predicting another 50.000 deaths in a predicted 3rd wave it doesn't fill people with confidence!
Wow , that's a lot of random stuff
Oh my gosh! I've just seen what you mean @ARYANTO! I'll fix it pronto!
I understand people start to worry. But at some stage this virus will have to become more endemic and less dangerous. And become more like a common flu or cold. And the vaccine should help with that. And the historical track record for vaccines is very much in favour of this.
Could be worse, lucky it wasn't a number two!
SA airlines scramble to adjust flights amid Gauteng travel ban
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/r...-gauteng-due-to-alert-level-4-lockdown-2021-6
28 July 2021
Any Gautengers who had planned a trip to Durbs during the school hols?
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/r...-gauteng-due-to-alert-level-4-lockdown-2021-6
28 July 2021
- South African airlines are dropping penalty fees for tickets cancelled at the last minute.
- This follows government’s decision to impose Adjusted Alert Level 4 lockdown which prohibits leisure travel to and from Gauteng.
- Airlines say they’re experiencing a surge in queries following the president’s Sunday-night address.
- FlySafair, Kulula, and Airlink are directing passengers to permits which allow for work-related travel, attending a funeral and caring for an immediate family member.
Any Gautengers who had planned a trip to Durbs during the school hols?
Have laugh, feel good!
Oh deer! 2 naked sunbathers fleeing from deer in Australia fined for breaching lockdown rules
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/n...alia-fined-break-covid-rules-flee-deer-2021-6
28 June 2021
"A pair of naked sunbathers who ended up getting lost after fleeing from a deer was fined R14,260 for breaching ongoing Covid-19 lockdown rules.
The two were reportedly sunbathing on a remote beach in Otford, South Sydney, on Sunday when they said they were startled by the animals. So they ran to the nearby Royal National Park at Otford where they apparently got lost.
The police received a call at about 18:00 on Sunday calling for assistance, and a search operation was carried out involving the State Emergency Services (SES) and a police helicopter.
30-year-old man was found naked and carrying a backpack, according to police, while a 49-year-old man was discovered "partially clothed," according to a New South Wales (NSW) police statement.
The two were then taken to the St. George police station in Sydney and each slapped with a $1,000 fine for breaking lockdown orders.
At a news conference, NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller called it "embarrassing" and added, "it's difficult to legislate against idiots."
"Not only did they require assistance from SES and police to rescue them, they also both received a ticket for $1,000," Fuller added.
New South Wales, of which Sydney is part, is on a two-week lockdown until July 9 following a Covid-19 outbreak in Bondi, one of Australia's most famous beaches. According to an ABC news report, more than 130 local cases have been reported in the state since June 16.
Under lockdown rules, locals are only allowed to leave their homes for essential reasons like groceries, work, or school."
Oh deer! 2 naked sunbathers fleeing from deer in Australia fined for breaching lockdown rules
https://www.businessinsider.co.za/n...alia-fined-break-covid-rules-flee-deer-2021-6
28 June 2021
"A pair of naked sunbathers who ended up getting lost after fleeing from a deer was fined R14,260 for breaching ongoing Covid-19 lockdown rules.
The two were reportedly sunbathing on a remote beach in Otford, South Sydney, on Sunday when they said they were startled by the animals. So they ran to the nearby Royal National Park at Otford where they apparently got lost.
The police received a call at about 18:00 on Sunday calling for assistance, and a search operation was carried out involving the State Emergency Services (SES) and a police helicopter.
30-year-old man was found naked and carrying a backpack, according to police, while a 49-year-old man was discovered "partially clothed," according to a New South Wales (NSW) police statement.
The two were then taken to the St. George police station in Sydney and each slapped with a $1,000 fine for breaking lockdown orders.
At a news conference, NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller called it "embarrassing" and added, "it's difficult to legislate against idiots."
"Not only did they require assistance from SES and police to rescue them, they also both received a ticket for $1,000," Fuller added.
New South Wales, of which Sydney is part, is on a two-week lockdown until July 9 following a Covid-19 outbreak in Bondi, one of Australia's most famous beaches. According to an ABC news report, more than 130 local cases have been reported in the state since June 16.
Under lockdown rules, locals are only allowed to leave their homes for essential reasons like groceries, work, or school."
I love this epidemiologist I discovered on fb that gives regular update. Well worth a browse
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100053149454347
This from her blog about the latest research on vaccines
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/vaccine-table-update-lo
Pfizer
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100053149454347
This from her blog about the latest research on vaccines
https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/vaccine-table-update-lo
Pfizer
- A Lancet study (blood from 250 people) found Delta reduced neutralization antibodies by 5.8-fold
- A study in the UK (1,054 people with Delta) found 87.9% efficacy 2 weeks after the second dose. Efficacy after one dose was 33.2%.
- An analysis (14,019 people with Delta) found 94% efficacy against severe disease (i.e. admission to hospital) after one dose and 96% efficacy after two doses.
- In a Scottish study (7,723 people with Delta) 134 people were hospitalized. Vaccine had 79% efficacy.
- If you missed it, here is the myocarditis update
- Working well against Beta and Gamma (both in terms of antibody and T-cell response; here)
- J&J said it’s testing whether its vaccine works against Delta, but no data is available yet (I’m keeping my eye out). There are a lot of opinions circulating regarding whether J&J people need a second dose. I want to be clear that there has been no scientific evidence showing the need, safety, or effectiveness yet.
From FB:
This doesn't make sense. I pick up a bottle of sanitiser with my unsanitised right hand. Then I spray sanitiser into the palm of my left hand. After that I put the bottle down, still using my unsanitised right hand.
This doesn't make sense. I pick up a bottle of sanitiser with my unsanitised right hand. Then I spray sanitiser into the palm of my left hand. After that I put the bottle down, still using my unsanitised right hand.
Why Western Cape is no longer doing Covid testing for under-45s at public sites
https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-af...ic-sites-07360f7b-7a5d-4d83-ac7e-df8c2042cd2f
29 June 2021
"... if you are 45 years old and younger, unemployed, or employed with no medical aid and have little cash at your disposal, there is no longer a chance of getting a Covid test for free at a public facility in the Western Cape to quickly put any concerns to rest.
Since last week Tuesday, the Western Cape Health Department no longer tests people under-45 at public facilities.
When asked why this is the case, Western Cape Health Department spokesperson Mark van der Heever told IOL on Tuesday: ’’The Western Cape Department of Health has limited testing at public healthcare facilities, in order to prevent major backlogs developing.
’’This was a key lesson learnt during the first and second wave, and enabled quick turn-around times in getting test results back to high-risk patients. This helps saves lives, as a quick diagnosis helps ensure careful monitoring and care to those who might need hospitalisation.
’’Currently, residents under the age of 45 without comorbidities will not be able to get tested at public health facilities, but can still be tested at private facilities.’’ ...
If you think you might have contracted the virus, you can call the National Institute for Communicable Diseases helpline (0800 029 999) and you will be advised on possible testing facilities.
However, testing is not routinely done unless testing is indicated by a health professional, therefore one would need to be assessed by your medical practitioner in order to qualify for testing."
https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-af...ic-sites-07360f7b-7a5d-4d83-ac7e-df8c2042cd2f
29 June 2021
"... if you are 45 years old and younger, unemployed, or employed with no medical aid and have little cash at your disposal, there is no longer a chance of getting a Covid test for free at a public facility in the Western Cape to quickly put any concerns to rest.
Since last week Tuesday, the Western Cape Health Department no longer tests people under-45 at public facilities.
When asked why this is the case, Western Cape Health Department spokesperson Mark van der Heever told IOL on Tuesday: ’’The Western Cape Department of Health has limited testing at public healthcare facilities, in order to prevent major backlogs developing.
’’This was a key lesson learnt during the first and second wave, and enabled quick turn-around times in getting test results back to high-risk patients. This helps saves lives, as a quick diagnosis helps ensure careful monitoring and care to those who might need hospitalisation.
’’Currently, residents under the age of 45 without comorbidities will not be able to get tested at public health facilities, but can still be tested at private facilities.’’ ...
If you think you might have contracted the virus, you can call the National Institute for Communicable Diseases helpline (0800 029 999) and you will be advised on possible testing facilities.
However, testing is not routinely done unless testing is indicated by a health professional, therefore one would need to be assessed by your medical practitioner in order to qualify for testing."
Just 3 more sleeps until I get my jab!
That’s awesome news! I’m jealous, I’m in the next NEXT batch
Nigeria restricts passengers from South Africa over virus spread
https://www.enca.com/news/nigeria-restricts-passengers-south-africa-over-virus-spread
29 June 2021
"Nigeria has barred passengers who are not citizens or permanent residents from entering the country if they have been in South Africa in the past 14 days over COVID-19 concerns..."
https://www.enca.com/news/nigeria-restricts-passengers-south-africa-over-virus-spread
29 June 2021
"Nigeria has barred passengers who are not citizens or permanent residents from entering the country if they have been in South Africa in the past 14 days over COVID-19 concerns..."
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