# Webinar - real reason for SA tobacco ban



## Silver (28/5/20)

hi guys

Check this out
https://www.biznews.com/undictated/...gal-tobacco-ban/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Webinar taking place today (Thurs) at 12h00

Free to join and you can ask questions beforehand

They going to have some experts on the webinar.

This is being done by Alec Hogg from Biznews.com. I’ve known Alec for years and he knows how to ask the right questions.

I may not be able to watch this, so if someone else can and report back what was said I would be most appreciative

@Rob Fisher , would you mind helping us to publicize this on FB and ask Kurt and his crew to check it out.

Thanks guys and have a good day

Reactions: Like 7 | Winner 4 | Informative 4


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## SmokeyJoe (28/5/20)

To add more fuel to the fire:

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/w...tudies-dlamini-zuma-cites-actually-say-2020-5

Reactions: Like 3 | Informative 4


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## volcom27101982 (28/5/20)

Silver said:


> hi guys
> 
> Check this out
> https://www.biznews.com/undictated/...gal-tobacco-ban/amp?__twitter_impression=true
> ...


Registered. Thanks for posting.

Reactions: Like 3


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## Silo (28/5/20)

Yeah, when keep being told 123. When asked how... 1+2+3 = logic.

Reactions: Like 2 | Agree 1


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## CJB85 (28/5/20)

This article from the UK found that 70% of ICU cases were overweight or obese, so perhaps they should fire some questions around why NDZ hasn't banned choccies, chips and coke yet?

https://www.bbc.com/news/52760992?f...PzIKytPK_kV8goflZNa7e_YNUc44zdP9ihYEn8m-e7GvQ

Reactions: Like 3


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## DavyH (28/5/20)

Can't get in, but I'm fairly confident there won't be any information that is either unknown or can't be inferred. Certain members of the NCCC need to be locked up.

Reactions: Like 2


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## CJB85 (28/5/20)

Ive listened to it from the start, will also post the webinar recording later.

Reactions: Like 2 | Thanks 1


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## Feliks Karp (28/5/20)

CJB85 said:


> Ive listened to it from the start, will also post the webinar recording later.



I'd appreciate that, I may have to stop watching soon and it's been fairly interesting.

Reactions: Like 3


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## CJB85 (28/5/20)

Sooo... the only mention of vaping, was that she (Telita Snyckers) suspects the vaping market is where most of illicit activities are and will grow, because vaping flies under the radar of government enforcement.

Reactions: Informative 1


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## CJB85 (28/5/20)

Okay, while I try to get to the recording, here are some brief points that they covered:

1) Big Tobacco influence media, politicians, government (globally, not just SA)
2) Most tobacco companies "buy" some form of political patronage and coverage
3) Up to 66% of cigarettes exported from SA are ghosted and sold locally without paying tax.
4) I didn't hear too well, but it sounded like 25% of all cigarettes produced in Zim are smuggled across our borders.
5) It appears that there are closer personal links between Mazotti/Carnilinks and Malema, than with NDZ. NDZ seems to be a legacy of a longstanding involvement with the ANC, not a particular person.
6) Panelists think that the court case against NDZ and the ban has a very good chance of succeeding on more than one section of the law.
7) Only a very brief mention of vaping, said that vaping is also covered by the ban, but receives very little of government/enforcement focus. They believe that Vaping is a much bigger problem in terms of illicit activities than cigarettes. We are again painted as the worse of two evils.
8) The panelists believe that the initial ban of tobacco was justified as a cautious approach, but not enough evidence or link to Covid-19 to justify the sustained ban.
9) One panelist believes NDZ is simply taking opportunistic advantage of a crisis to further a longstanding agenda of squashing smoking in SA. Sort of trying to achieve what she had not been able to legislate during her time as Minister of Health.
10) R30 billion of public pensions invested in BAT.

I had the kids running around the kitchen, so my apologies if there are any major things that I missed.

Reactions: Winner 2 | Thanks 9 | Informative 1


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## CJB85 (28/5/20)

Oh...
11) The ban has allowed the illicit distributors to increase their skills, capabilities etc.

Reactions: Like 2 | Thanks 4


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## mstrauss003 (28/5/20)

@CJB85 Thank you for the feedback. Appreciate you giving the key points to what was said. Thank you.

Reactions: Like 3 | Agree 1


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## Feliks Karp (28/5/20)

*12) the long term psychological implications of us all being criminals now, will lead to us continuing to buy illicit cigarettes in future as a way to revolt against what has been seen to be a "stupid law".

Reactions: Like 6


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## Balsak (28/5/20)

Got some points on mybb


We don't fully know medically whether the ban on tobacco is / was justified.
NDZ has a long history of being anti-tobacco.
R14.2 billion in annual tax generation from tobacco.
PIC (public pension funds and so on) has R29.2 billion vested in BAT.
66% of locally manufactured cigarettes never reach export destination, likely sold in SA.
Johann van Loggerenberg has noted brands he has never seen / heard of before, those are definitely smuggled in.
Adriano Mazzotti politically active as teenager. Has openly made donations to Malema and NDZ in the past.
Another Carnilinx director (not Mazzotti) lent money to Malema to help settle outstanding tax money.
Carnilinx paid a portion of registration money for EFF elections.
During run-up to the latest presidential elections Mazzotti had a number of meetings with NDZ, she confessed to one meeting, journalist exposed more meetings with photos as evidence.
Mazzotti says he is not a friend of NDZ.
There's a theory that certain factions within the ANC are more closely aligned to the EFF than others. This theory is not helpful to advance understanding of the topic.
Whilst medically debatable still, definitely economically this tobacco ban is not working.
An initial 3-5 week ban would have been acceptable and was a good thing based on assumption, but now not feasible.
It is further entrenching illicit market.
Roughly 25% of tobacco market was illicit around 2017, went down 6-8% in 2019 thanks to good work from SARS.
Now it is again getting increasingly well established.
Suspected price wars between the role-players after lock down.
It may lead many South Africans to continue buying from the illicit market as a sort of tax revolt to show dissatisfaction with government.
Honest, law-abiding citizens are now breaking the law and questioning the ban - dangerous precedent.
When you infringe on the rights of ~7 million South Africans you better have something in place to mitigate the consequences,
Government needed 2 weeks to provide reasons for ban, suggesting they had to go look for evidence after the fact.
FITA has strong chance of success.

Reactions: Like 4 | Winner 1 | Thanks 4 | Informative 4


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## DavyH (28/5/20)

Wasn’t able to get in, so thanks for giving the bullet points.

Reactions: Like 1


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## Silver (28/5/20)

Thanks guys
Thanks @CJB85 for the great summary of points and for listening
And to the other guys for adding colour to this

I appreciate it because I was in a meeting so couldn’t listen

Let’s hope that this kind of coverage can help the situation ...

Reactions: Like 2 | Agree 1


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