# Vaping Regulatory Conference South Africa



## Rude Rudi (25/1/17)

I just heard on EWN that government officials are in a meeting/conference to hear evidence to decide whether to regulate the vaping industry in South Africa...

It was just a matter of time...

Eish...

Reactions: Can relate 1


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## incredible_hullk (25/1/17)

eish indeed..anything those jokers touch goes up in flames (no pun intended)


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## Huffapuff (25/1/17)

incredible_hullk said:


> eish indeed..anything those jokers touch goes up in flames (no pun intended)



Maybe someone should teach them ohm's law then

Reactions: Funny 1


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## incredible_hullk (25/1/17)

http://m.ewn.co.za/2017/01/25/are-e-cigarettes-the-safer-option-when-it-comes-to-smoking


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## Spydro (25/1/17)

Rude Rudi said:


> I just heard on EWN that government officials are in a meeting/conference to hear evidence to decide whether to regulate the vaping industry in South Africa...
> 
> It was just a matter of time...
> 
> Eish...



Can relate. Under the new Trump regime in America a top cabinet pick for the HHS job (Department of Health and Human Services) was being grilled yesterday as part of the confirmation process. It was disturbing when a senator specifically nailed him about upholding the FDA Deeming we are facing here. Not good to bring that up into the light again on national TV with someone as unpredictable with his own agendas as Trump is calling all the shots.

Reactions: Like 1 | Agree 1


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## Stosta (25/1/17)

I just hope it takes my government as long to make a decision on this as they have with filling the pot-hole outside my driveway.

In all seriousness though, we need regulation in this industry, here's hoping it's the right regulations and not just thrown in the basket with smoking as it looks like it will be.

Reactions: Like 1 | Agree 1 | Funny 1


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## incredible_hullk (25/1/17)

Stosta said:


> I just hope it takes my government as long to make a decision on this as they have with filling the pot-hole outside my driveway.
> 
> In all seriousness though, we need regulation in this industry, here's hoping it's the right regulations and not just thrown in the basket with smoking as it looks like it will be.


@Stosta it will not be good..i see this as just being abt the tax revenue TBH

Reactions: Agree 1


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## craigb (25/1/17)

One of the comments on the EWN article

Cybermoo • 39 minutes ago


HUH?! This is false reporting!! None of that was said at today's session! Your journalists clearly need some training on how to take notes and not lie to the public! Today's session was actually very positive with a complete overshadow tone of vaping is healthier than smoking cigarettes and can be a VERY effective means to quite! Heck even people from the NHI in the UK were there and stated how it has been successful in the UK!

Get your reporting facts right!!!​

Reactions: Like 1 | Agree 1 | Winner 4


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## incredible_hullk (25/1/17)

craigb said:


> One of the comments on the EWN article
> 
> Cybermoo • 39 minutes ago
> 
> ...


oh wow...well done ewn yet agn


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## craigb (25/1/17)

incredible_hullk said:


> oh wow...well done ewn yet agn



Well isn't it generally accepted that eye witness testimony is generally unreliable

Reactions: Agree 1 | Winner 1


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## RichJB (25/1/17)

I think we can accept that:

1) Vaping will be regulated.
2) Vaping will be subject to sin taxes.
3) The regulations will be similar if not identical to those for smoking wrt age limits, public spaces, health insurance costs, etc.
4) As regards vape gear regulation, there is a likelihood that our govt will adopt the TPD which applies in the EU. When it comes to regulation and standardisation, we are historically closer to the EU (UK specifically) than the US.

I find it extremely unlikely that our vape gear and manufacturers will be lumbered with the FDA-style PMTAs. Generally the SA market is so small, and so aligned with EU markets, that we accept EU market approvals here without requiring a separate approval. So vape gear manufacturers will just forward their EU approvals to our govt, and those will be accepted.

Reactions: Like 1


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## Rob Fisher (25/1/17)

Most of my real thoughts can’t be published in public. The governing party is a joke and this is just one more moronic move by whomever is responsible. The fact that vaping is always under attack sends me into a rage. Having smoked for 40+ years and vaped exclusively for 3+ years I don’t need any research to tell me vaping is the answer to smokers being killed by burning tobacco.

Vaping businesses need to pull together and employ a lobbyist to handle things like this. To rant and rave isn’t going to help one bit (well it may a little) and what needs to be done is for the vaping businesses to start a real organisation with funding for lawyers. Sticking one’s head in the sand and hoping someone else will do something is what got us here in the first place.

Reactions: Like 2 | Agree 5 | Winner 1


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## Coldcat (25/1/17)

Will suck if SA follows EU and only allows us to have 2ml tanks. How does one regulate that though? Spot fines?


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## Imperator (25/1/17)

Rob Fisher said:


> Most of my real thoughts can’t be published in public. The governing party is a joke and this is just one more moronic move by whomever is responsible. The fact that vaping is always under attack sends me into a rage. Having smoked for 40+ years and vaped exclusively for 3+ years I don’t need any research to tell me vaping is the answer to smokers being killed by burning tobacco.
> 
> Vaping businesses need to pull together and employ a lobbyist to handle things like this. To rant and rave isn’t going to help one bit (well it may a little) and what needs to be done is for the vaping businesses to start a real organisation with funding for lawyers. Sticking one’s head in the sand and hoping someone else will do something is what got us here in the first place.



Absolutely agree. 

Depending on the actual proposed Bill or Amendments, there needs to be heavy criticism and pressure leveled against the drafters (much like in the case of the DTI and their disastrous first draft of the Copyright Amendment Bill). This can't just come from Facebook and Twitter, academics need to get involved, papers submitted to peer-reviewed journals, university professors and the like tearing apart any false equivalencies, oversteps and errors that occur in the drafting of whatever comes our way. Submissions need to be made from the public during the open submissions process, any misconceptions need to be corrected etc. 

I'll definitely be putting pen to paper and encouraging other lawyers, friends, vapers and whoever I catch on the street to do the same.

Reactions: Like 2 | Winner 1


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## Muchis (25/1/17)

Imperator said:


> Absolutely agree.
> 
> Depending on the actual proposed Bill or Amendments, there needs to be heavy criticism and pressure leveled against the drafters (much like in the case of the DTI and their disastrous first draft of the Copyright Amendment Bill). This can't just come from Facebook and Twitter, academics need to get involved, papers submitted to peer-reviewed journals, university professors and the like tearing apart any false equivalencies, oversteps and errors that occur in the drafting of whatever comes our way. Submissions need to be made from the public during the open submissions process, any misconceptions need to be corrected etc.
> 
> I'll definitely be putting pen to paper and encouraging other lawyers, friends, vapers and whoever I catch on the street to do the same.


I echoe your sentiments....I am an attorney and will certainly be opposing the overzealous legislators when the time comes....I have smoked for 16 years and would never have left without vaping, am now a year free of tobacco.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

Reactions: Like 6 | Winner 6


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## Martin_tu (26/1/17)

RichJB said:


> I think we can accept that: Generally the SA market is so small,



WADR. Your source for this assumption please?


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## RichJB (26/1/17)

Martin_tu said:


> WADR. Your source for this assumption please?



The assumption that we're a small player in the global vaping market, or the assumption that we won't implement TPD/FDA type pre-market approval mechanisms? The former is common sense, the latter can be deduced intuitively by knowing how standardisation/regulatory/certification bodies think (I work with them regularly) and by drawing comparisons with pre-market processes in other industries. 

Smok, Kanger, Sigelei et al will be willing to undergo burdensome pre-market approvals in the EU and US because it grants them access to these giant markets. If they are required to undergo the same bureaucratic processes to access much smaller markets, their willingness to spend the time and money drops off steeply.

Reactions: Like 1


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## Martin_tu (26/1/17)

RichJB said:


> The assumption that we're a small player in the global vaping market, or the assumption that we won't implement TPD/FDA type pre-market approval mechanisms?



Neither. As asked, simply why or how you feel that 'Generally the SA market is so small'. Nothing more. Small compared to the global market? Or literally as stated, just 'so small'. Does anyone have any figures at all on the SA vaping scene, EASA, or maybe VPASA? I see no indication from either on the estimated size like we see on the UK; "1.8 million" or Europe's "6.1 million". Have you?

Just saying.


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## RichJB (26/1/17)

No but I think we can safely say that our market is much smaller than most developed nations' markets. For starters, vaping hasn't taken off among black South Africans, judging by the turnout at vape meets and VapeCon and from what I've seen by visiting vape shops. I also have seen hardly any black vapers in public. When 80% of our population aren't keen on something, we're not going to have a huge market for it. We certainly have a huge market by African standards. In fact, we're probably the only vaping market in Africa. But not by Euro or North American standards.


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## Martin_tu (26/1/17)

RichJB said:


> When 80% of our population aren't keen on something, we're not going to have a huge market for it.



I concur with everything you've said, but my interest is in what the estimated size of the SA market is, any guesses? (educated or otherwise). And also how rapidly vaping is catching on. My own take is that given that the most common sign one sees in many online venues seems to be "Out of Stock", the supply doesn't seem to be quite keeping pace with demand, yet there are literally scores of new online SA venues on FB, and almost every little dorp seems to have a vendor of one size or another, -even if most appear to be one-man-bands working out of their garage, kitchen or wendy house.


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## RichJB (27/1/17)

I couldn't guess at the market size but I fear we're also reaching our limit quite quickly. Three factors inform this view:

1) Vaping is becoming more expensive. Mod and tank manufacturers, focusing naturally on the larger developed world markets, are sending juice consumption through the roof. Because their key customer base is a) wealthy and b) charged an arm and a leg for cigarettes. The price of smokes in the UK, for eg, is horrendous. Vaping costs, not so much. A few years ago, most vapers were puffing on 15W cigalikes that used 1-2ml of juice per day. The latest generation of 300W mods and multi-coil tanks will blow through 50ml of juice a day no problem. How many South Africans can afford R100-R150 of juice per day? And then things like batteries. Previous-gen vape gear used one battery. So you needed to buy 2x18650s max and you were set, even more so if you charged in the mod via USB. Now we have quad-cell mods where you need to buy 8x18650s and an external charger in order to have a set available all the time. Costs are skyrocketing. How much growth headroom is there, given the economic realities in SA?

2) I think there is a limit to how many smokers will turn to vaping. Many will but some won't. There is still growth potential but fewer people are starting smoking now. Look at the percentage of adult smokers now compared to, say, thirty years ago. This applies everywhere. In the UK in the 1950s, more than half the adult population smoked. When vaping really took off in the UK around 2010 or so, that number of smokers was already down to 20% and has since reduced further to around 16% now. So vaping's potential market was undermined everywhere by the social trend towards not smoking, especially given that very few vapers are never-smokers. So that means fewer potential vapers down the line. The number of SA smokers might be stable or even growing, I don't know. But if it is growing, it will be among the least educated, in line with global norms. The higher a person's education level, the less likely they are to smoke. And the more they are likely to earn. So even if SA still has a growing ratio of smokers, it will be among manual labourers and blue collar workers who are effectively priced out of the vaping market.

3) Not all who turn to vaping will remain in the SA vaping market. Wealthy Saffies are quite a mobile group. Many are emigrating. And then not all vapers continue to do it. Some do it for a while and then quit everything. So the SA market growth will be offset by vapers who quit and those who emigrate.

I suspect that hefty regulation and sin taxes against vaping will prove further deterrents. I think we still have some growth headroom. But unless the vaping industry can find a way to popularise vaping among black smokers, and find a way to make it affordable for them, our growth will plateau quite quickly. But then, initial industry analysis indicated that the SA cell phone market would peak at 250k users. So analyses can be dead wrong. Anyway, we'll find out either way. Exciting times.

Reactions: Like 2 | Agree 2


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## SmokeyJoe (27/1/17)

My greatest concernt is how all of this will effect pricing on vape equipment and juice. I fall within the middle class and im already struggeling to finance my "hobby" even though I diy. If sin tax are introduced or any other kind of tax, it may result in vaping being, three, four times more expensive than analogues for a basic starter kit which will discourage people to move away from cigarettes

Reactions: Agree 1


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## crack2483 (27/1/17)

^^ this. Pricing will be a problem if sin tax is applied. I fear a lot of people will resort back to cigarettes. 


Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


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## Willyza (27/1/17)

crack2483 said:


> ^^ this. Pricing will be a problem if sin tax is applied. I fear a lot of people will resort back to cigarettes.


@crack2483
Somehow I don't agree with that statement I cant see myself going back to Cigarettes in any form
just for health reason alone

Reactions: Agree 1


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## Martin_tu (27/1/17)

RichJB said:


> I couldn't guess at the market size but I fear we're also reaching our limit quite quickly. Three factors inform this view. (snip) Exciting times.



Erm, you do know you're wasted here don't you. Add a pie chart, a graph or two and a bit of female vaper cleavage, you'd have a great article for general MSM release....

Thanks for your insightful and erudite reply.

Reactions: Like 1


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## craigb (27/1/17)

Martin_tu said:


> Erm, you do know you're wasted here don't you. Add a pie chart, a graph or two and a bit of female vaper cleavage, you'd have a great article for general MSM release....
> 
> Thanks for your insightful and erudite reply.


forget member of the month - I hereby nominate @RichJB as member of the year.

You know when you see he has posted, you will get solid maths and well reasoned opinion.

Reactions: Thanks 1


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## Caveman (27/1/17)

RichJB said:


> I couldn't guess at the market size but I fear we're also reaching our limit quite quickly. Three factors inform this view:
> 
> 1) Vaping is becoming more expensive. Mod and tank manufacturers, focusing naturally on the larger developed world markets, are sending juice consumption through the roof. Because their key customer base is a) wealthy and b) charged an arm and a leg for cigarettes. The price of smokes in the UK, for eg, is horrendous. Vaping costs, not so much. A few years ago, most vapers were puffing on 15W cigalikes that used 1-2ml of juice per day. The latest generation of 300W mods and multi-coil tanks will blow through 50ml of juice a day no problem. How many South Africans can afford R100-R150 of juice per day? And then things like batteries. Previous-gen vape gear used one battery. So you needed to buy 2x18650s max and you were set, even more so if you charged in the mod via USB. Now we have quad-cell mods where you need to buy 8x18650s and an external charger in order to have a set available all the time. Costs are skyrocketing. How much growth headroom is there, given the economic realities in SA?
> 
> ...



Well written. I disagree to an extent on the price point argument though. Yes, higher end gear is getting more expensive, this is true for the entire tech industry, but the price of entry level kit is coming down, very few main stream vapers (in my limited experience) use massive 4 - 8 coil setups all day or even drain 4 batteries a day, those that do that, can easily afford to do so. There is such a wide variety of available tanks and mods, some for reasonably cheap and some ridiculously expensive. As with any other industry there is a price entry point, with that I agree and it will effectively price a large part of the population out of the market. It all comes down to affordability, if you cannot afford R100 a day on juice, chances are you won't do that, it's more likely you will get a device that is much cheaper and get juice that is stronger that will last you a lot longer.

What I suspect we will see is a bubble, we have seen the tremendous and exponential growth in a very short amount of time and then we will have sudden stagnation as innovation dries up and people start getting comfortable with what they have. Research and Markets reckon that the industry will be worth $32 billion by 2021 (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/n8lcg2/global_vape). That is not a small industry. It's worth noting though that their research is based on tobacco companies and vape companies and I believe there is where we will see the trend going. New vapers will soon most likely be buying something provided by Big Tobacco.

Those of us building coils and making our own juice will become the "roll your owns" of the new vape industry, while Big Tobacco will become the main stream supplier.

Reactions: Like 2


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## RichJB (27/1/17)

Good points, @Caveman.


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## Martin_tu (13/2/17)

RichJB said:


> I think we can accept that: Generally the SA market is so small,



By overseas standards maybe but perhaps not so 'small' in SA after all. http://www.vapingpost.com/2016/07/15/vaping-industry-thriving-in-south-africa/ (And that was last June)

So I approached those ppl I mentioned in my post (VPASA) just as a general enquiry. They told me it was only R3000 to R5000 a month membership fees to be able so speak (and possibly vote nogal) at their AGM's...... Go figure.

Erm, pass.

M_tu


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