# The true fatality rate of Covid-19 is still unclear



## alex1501 (13/4/20)

Since when is the science based on assumptions and belief?

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## M.Adhir (13/4/20)

Technically it could never be known or clear. 
Unless everyone who has passed on is tested.

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

M.Adhir said:


> Technically it could never be known.
> Unless everyone who has passed on is tested.



I'm not sure what are you saying.

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## Resistance (13/4/20)

I think the way things are going most of these predictions are made so they can say I predicted that.
According to me you must take the world population, the infections,the deaths the recoveries and the recovery rate including the adhering and non adhering and then only will you come close to a figure that makes sense.
And if you want it to look at a country like say South Africa you need to look at the reckless, non adhering and the folk that has no option,but to leave the house for supplies as well.comparing to total population including immigrants and visitors. Along with the adhering compared to the total population. Combined with the infected, recovered and deaths so far.

It's not so complicated but it's hard to put all those together if you don't know exactly what you're working with and estimates are the only option.
The better thing would be to look at trends and this is what's working right now.

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## M.Adhir (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> I'm not sure what are you saying.



That the fatality rate will always remain unclear until such a stage where every person who has died is tested and has a confirmed cause of death

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## Grand Guru (13/4/20)

there is a lot of sense in what he’s saying but the true fatality rate can eventually only be calculated and I prefer to say estimated at the end of the pandemic. You cannot measure your average speed in the beginning of the race but you can only make predictions and projections which are not necessarily accurate and you need to review them constantly as new information on the traffic, weather conditions etc. keeps coming in.
The fatality rate will certainly vary from country to country depending on the age distribution, the burden of disease, the state of the healthcare system, the government style of managing the epidemic and the responsiveness of the population to social distancing measures...

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

M.Adhir said:


> That the fatality rate will always remain unclear until such a stage where every person who has died is tested and has a confirmed cause of death



So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?

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## Jengz (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?


I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding

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## Resistance (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?


I would like to know myself. I second this question.

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## Chickenstrip (13/4/20)

Jengz said:


> I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding



Agreed, as well as people with terminal diseases like stage 4 cancer for example, who were tipped over the edge EARLY by covid.

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## Resistance (13/4/20)

Yes and if a patient dies of heart failure due to less oxygen in the blood stream due to Corona infection.
Does it get listed as a Corona - or a heart failure?

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

Grand Guru said:


> there is a lot of sense in what he’s saying but the true fatality rate can eventually only be calculated and I prefer to say estimated at the end of the pandemic. You cannot measure your average speed in the beginning of the race but you can only make predictions and projections which are not necessarily accurate and you need to review them constantly as new information on the traffic, weather conditions etc. keeps coming in.
> The fatality rate will certainly vary from country to country depending on the age distribution, the burden of disease, the state of the healthcare system, the government style of managing the epidemic and the responsiveness of the population to social distancing measures...



I understand what you are saying.
My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.

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## Adephi (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, what is the information stated on the "death certificate" right now, just a guess?



When a patient with HIV passes they don't write HIV on the certificate but rather the secondary condition that is formed because of it. like pneumonia or TB. Technically HIV doesn't kill but lowers the immune system to let another opertunistic disease take over. So it's not incorrect. And then there's also the ethical thing around HIV.

Now my opinion (not to be taken as fact) is a lot of people that passes that got Covid-19 is declared dead due to the symptons like pneumonia. Especially if its people with pre-conditions. Therefore a lot could go under the radar.

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## Chickenstrip (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> I understand what you are saying.
> My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
> Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.



It's 2020 my brother. Now it's about how people feel. If your data offends it's subject to scrutiny.

Reactions: Agree 1 | Funny 2


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## Adephi (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> I understand what you are saying.
> My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
> Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.



The fact is there is not enough data. We work from projections and simulations to try and predict what is going to happen. I believe Cyril had over 60 such graphs, projections and scenarios to work from before he extended the lockdown.

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

Adephi said:


> The fact is there is not enough data. We work from projections and simulations to try and predict what is going to happen. I believe Cyril had over 60 such graphs, projections and scenarios to work from before he extended the lockdown.



So, basically we did shut down the World, based on the rough guesstimates.

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## Chickenstrip (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, basically we did shut down the World, based on the rough guesstimates.


YOLO

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## Timwis (13/4/20)

Resistance said:


> Yes and if a patient dies of heart failure due to less oxygen in the blood stream due to Corona infection.
> Does it get listed as a Corona - or a heart failure?


In the UK they are being recorded as complications due to Covid-19 so getting recorded as Covid-19 deaths but can't speak for other countries.

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

Jengz said:


> I think what @M.Adhir is saying is that there are probably cases of people who have died due to covid but they were never diagnosed so their deaths dont get recorded as covid deaths. I doubt autopsies are being done world wide on every death that occurs. I dont know a lot about how these things work but thats my understanding



I agree, that is possible, but then it's also possible that some deaths due to other causes are misrepresented as Covid.

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## Adephi (13/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, basically we did shut down the World, based on the rough guesstimates.



Bassed on what is happening in countries around the world I'd say educated guesstimates

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## alex1501 (13/4/20)

Adephi said:


> Bassed on what is happening in countries around the world I'd say educated guesstimates



According to the video in the OP, not so much.


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## Timwis (13/4/20)

The fact is unless every single person who gets infected is tested which just isn't going to happen as some people don't get symptoms and just act as carriers while others get so mild symptoms they don't think it's actually coronavirus they have exact mortality rates would be guessing. Mortality rates seem to differ from country to country with the one positive being in Germany where a lot of tests have been carried out mortality rates seem quite low unlike the UK where it's a lot higher but then people are only being tested once very ill so those just self isolating with mild symptoms at home are not part of the stats, if they were our mortality rate would be lower.

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## Grand Guru (14/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> I understand what you are saying.
> My question was more tovards statements like: "many experts believe..."
> Science that I was studying, was always about the provable data, not beliefs.


Keep in mind that the virus was only identified less than 4 months ago and the studies that were conducted so far are essentially of small scale and uncontrolled as the healthcare systems are overwhelmed with the pandemic. To have accurate and reliable information we need to conduct large scale controlled studies in order to minimize all sorts of sample biases. Nevertheless, this is not a completely new virus as it’s part of a family of viruses that caused many epidemics in the past like for instance the virus of the common cold. Based on that we can make rough guesstimates about it’s case fatality rate amongst other things...
On the death certificates, practitioners put the most likely cause of death as primary cause and all the chronic conditions that may have contributed to the death like AIDS, Asthma, heart or kidney failure etc. as secondary causes(s) of death.
Large scale studies are underway in many countries including SA so we will have more accurate figures in a few months.

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## Alex (14/4/20)

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death#does-the-news-reflect-what-we-die-from







"
*How to combat our bias for single events*

Media and its consumers are stuck in a reinforcing cycle. The news reports on breaking events, which are often based around a compelling story. Consumers want to know what’s going on in the world *— *we are quickly immersed by the latest headline. We come to expect news updates with increasing frequency, and media channels have clear incentives to deliver. This locks us into a cycle of expectation and coverage with a strong bias for outlier events. Most of us are left with a skewed perception of the world; we think the world is much worse than it is.15
The responsibility in breaking this cycle lies with both media producers and consumers. Will we ever stop reporting and reading the latest news? Unlikely. But we can all be more conscious of how we let this news shape our understanding of the world.
And journalists can do much better in providing context of the broader trends: if reporting on a homicide, for example, include context of how homicide rates are changing over time.16
As media consumers we can be much more aware of the fact that relying on the 24/7 news coverage alone is wholly insufficient for understanding the state of the world. This requires us to check our (often unconscious) bias for single narratives and seek out sources that provide a fact-based perspective on the world.
This antidote to the news is what we try to provide at Our World in Data. It should be accessible for everyone, which is why our work is completely open-access. Whether you are a media producer or consumer, feel free to take and use anything you find here."

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## Resistance (14/4/20)

alex1501 said:


> So, basically we did shut down the World, based on the rough guesstimates.



Yes ,but it was a good thing.(good guessing I'd say)

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## alex1501 (14/4/20)

Resistance said:


> Yes ,but it was a good thing.(good guessing I'd say)



History will be the best judge of that (I guess).

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## Resistance (14/4/20)

Basically when t


alex1501 said:


> History will be the best judge of that (I guess).


My thinking is this. A lot of people perished in a few countries and nobody knew what to do. So it was a good guess in my opinion to lock things down till an answer was available. And till now nothing. I'm just hoping they figure out a way to understand this virus so it can be controlled or somewhat muted so it can be treated in the advanced stage.

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