Inside the Cigarette Smuggling Trade | Carte Blanche
- Thread starter Dela Rey Steyn
- Start date
I still have my money in this being the most major tobacco coup in history.
People are now used to paying R50 to R70 for a pack of those 'illicit' cigs which are usually 10 bucks a pack because no excise is paid.
As the ban gets lifted, that company will apply for licensing and legalize themselves for sale in SA.
With excise etc added their price will be like 30 bucks a pack.
People will pay 30 bucks a pack because
- its cheaper than the previous 'legal' brands
- they are now used to the taste of those 'iilicit' cigs as they have been smoking that for the past few months
So the 'iilicit' companies made a killing during lockdown/ the tobacco ban.
And will then claim most of the market share once the ban is lifted.
People are now used to paying R50 to R70 for a pack of those 'illicit' cigs which are usually 10 bucks a pack because no excise is paid.
As the ban gets lifted, that company will apply for licensing and legalize themselves for sale in SA.
With excise etc added their price will be like 30 bucks a pack.
People will pay 30 bucks a pack because
- its cheaper than the previous 'legal' brands
- they are now used to the taste of those 'iilicit' cigs as they have been smoking that for the past few months
So the 'iilicit' companies made a killing during lockdown/ the tobacco ban.
And will then claim most of the market share once the ban is lifted.
Agree 100%
Fantastic way to capture market share.
Fantastic way to capture market share.
I don't think so. For a person like me brand is important. If I was still a smoker, I would not want to be seen smoking any of these shady brands. The brand you smoke is a sign of status.
Plus these cigarettes are already available at their legal costs in some places. No one buys them when they charge full R30 for a packet.
Now lets forget the lockdown and the whole tobacco ban, What I don't understand is everyone knows where they can buy these cheap non excise paid cigarettes. why is nothing done to stop the sales or track down and bust the entire racket?
Where is SA going to get the money to pay back our Covid debt. Taxes and more taxes. Sin taxes are going to get a hiding. When it does, folk will remember the cheap brands that were "not so bad"
My thought is that the racket is well organized. And all thats happening with the raids as such is to concentrate the supply chain.
Thats why i think theres a much bigger picture at play.
To put it simply - the cops know where the factories are.
Why are they only raiding the "smaller" resellers and not the people selling 200 cartons at a time which are shipping straight form factory.
From you and me, Joe Taxpayer.
SARS sent me a sms stating I've been automatically assessed for R11371, so I rushed online and submitted my forms, turns out I owe them R3600... first time in 7years.
The milking has begun. :/
Brand doesn't matter right now. And it won't when lockdowns lifted. You are one in how many that won't be seen with a cheap'o. Theres so many smokers that doesn't care what they smoke now and even look for their own cheap'o brand that wouldn't have wanted to be seen next to someone that smoked cheapo's.
Most of them started saying what @M.Adhir said, that they would continue to smoke the cheapo's.
And when it came to status. The ball dropped bro. Two door Mercs, Porsche ,BMW M3 owners all that smoke. Show that they smoke the cheapo's. I guess it's the new status symbol to be able to afford the cheap smokes.
They do that in the other illegal trades. Wait outside for the guys that comes to get his fix and then they nail the poor fellow.
you are right at the moment brand doesn't matter.I was actually referring to @M.Adhir comment "As the ban gets lifted, that company will apply for licensing and legalize themselves for sale in SA. With excise etc added their price will be like 30 bucks a pack.". I honestly don't think anyone will pay that amount for a cheap brand when they can buy good ones for about the same price.
True, I heard a few people already saying they'll stick to the brand's they're smoking now.
The market has already been compromised and my opinion is, if it's available for sale people will buy it.
The Chicago brand for that matter. When they saw people aren't buying famous brands and rather this cheap brand. It was legalised and ended up in supermarkets. Still for cheaper than famous brands ,but people ended up paying about R30 a pack and they still bought it.
So if this cheapo brand are legalised. My opinion is that it will still sell at any price.
I have heard pineapple beer can be addictive too. Bet that is a winner when the flea markets open again.
Here is my biggest worry right now about the illicit cigarette trade right now. And maybe/hopefully I'm just being paranoid, but its something I've been thinking of.
These guys selling cigarettes next to road. Where do they get the stock from. Obviously from some trader in illicit contraband. And what else do they trade with? Other illicit contraband like heroin, tik, meth, mandrax...
Right now the government has given another illicit contraband to them with an enourmous market in the form of cigarettes. So right now they have expanded their network to meet the demand to the point where they are dealing at your nearest intersection. You don't even need to get out of your car.
So when the tobacco ban gets lifted these guys won't have cigarettes to sell anymore. But the illicit trade network has been established. And suddenly the hard drugs will be available everywhere. And the police will not be able to do a thing because it is already just too big to get under control.
These guys selling cigarettes next to road. Where do they get the stock from. Obviously from some trader in illicit contraband. And what else do they trade with? Other illicit contraband like heroin, tik, meth, mandrax...
Right now the government has given another illicit contraband to them with an enourmous market in the form of cigarettes. So right now they have expanded their network to meet the demand to the point where they are dealing at your nearest intersection. You don't even need to get out of your car.
So when the tobacco ban gets lifted these guys won't have cigarettes to sell anymore. But the illicit trade network has been established. And suddenly the hard drugs will be available everywhere. And the police will not be able to do a thing because it is already just too big to get under control.
The network has not been established now, it was there before lockdown. Their market and operations has just increased.
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