Lockdown diaries - COVID-19 matters!
- Thread starter Grand Guru
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By the way, if you are referring to the graph I just posted above - I have been watching this graph (new daily cases and new daily deaths) for quite a long time - and have posted this graph several times on this thread.
Most of the countries that are further through the COVID pandemic have similar shaped graphs in the beginning - then they plateau - then they start declining.
So I am trying to watch for when our plateau will come.
The next few weeks are going to be tough on all of us. The total number of cases went from 60k to above 100k in the last week and the number of new cases is rising every day. It’s now that we need to be most cautious and protect the vulnerable amongst us as most hospitals are filling up and the healthcare system is getting overwhelmed and healthcare professionals are affected and burnt out. Stay safe!
Thanks @Grand Guru
And thank you for all that you guys do
Am trying to do my part by staying safe and not getting or spreading the virus
Just a question out of interest sake @Grand Guru
Would you say our lockdown since end March helped our healthcare system to prepare for what’s coming?
I.e. versus if we didn’t have any lockdown?
do you any links to sources about the hospitals? I ask because I stay with a paramedic and the hospitals he works are still not filling up with covid victims.
Just asking not trying to start a argument.
It certainly did at more than one level. It bought us a very precious time to prepare the institutions and the staff.
I've been watching the graphs as well. Google's Covid-19 is very handy with all the countries and provinces separately.
What I have been looking for is that moment our cases doubles in 7 days. Italy, UK and New York's health systems started taking strain at that moment. We were at 12 days a few days ago but we are now doubling after 15 days. Might not be the peak yet, just some statistical variance.
What is interesting, Western Cape never had that rapid increase. Gauteng is standing at 10 days doubling of cases currently. A little bit more and we might reach that point of danger (I'm sure there's a word for it, should have listened in stats class). The smaller provinces are also showing sharp increases currently. As @Grand Guru say, we are in for a bumpy ride these next couple of weeks.
Thanks to the lockdown many people have been saved to moan about the lockdown.
@Silver I don't normally go in depth into a discussion that in my opinion has been overwhelmingly proven, especially one that has the scope and span of this one. But out of respect for you I will post a series of randomly selected graphs I just grabbed to raise a few of the points. I stress a few, there are many many more angles that come into play in this debate, these are not what convinced me we are watching a misguided (or guided) frenzy of epic proportions.
The danger here is that people think this is what I base my views on. It is not. It is a whole lot more, too much to argue. At my age time is limited, the clock is ticking.
Bear with me and all the graphs please. In random order.
Note people tend to die more the older they are, no surprises there. Also note that dying with Covid and dying of Covid are two totally different things, but all get lumped under Covid deaths. This is not a conspiracy theory, this is established and acknowledged fact. Sorry, I'm not also going hunting for those. What anyone believes is not my responsibility, it's theirs.
Interesting that last line innit, taking into account the 'with' and 'from' issue.
Same with/from issue. Note with/without underlying conditions columns. Again, dying with Covid = Covid death.
Your old, you die, probably with underlying conditions, thats just life. With or without Covid. With Covid your a stat, without, who cares.
Males die younger than females, who'dathunk. I like the 'known sex' at the top, very woke.
OK, this one may be arguable, but I'll leave it in for entertainment.
Point of all my posting, from the original above, is context. Everybody runs around brandishing stats, questionable stats, with no context. At least be honest, (I'm NOT aiming this at you but to this whole mess) and balance with context and I may respect the view.
The danger here is that people think this is what I base my views on. It is not. It is a whole lot more, too much to argue. At my age time is limited, the clock is ticking.
Bear with me and all the graphs please. In random order.
Note people tend to die more the older they are, no surprises there. Also note that dying with Covid and dying of Covid are two totally different things, but all get lumped under Covid deaths. This is not a conspiracy theory, this is established and acknowledged fact. Sorry, I'm not also going hunting for those. What anyone believes is not my responsibility, it's theirs.
Interesting that last line innit, taking into account the 'with' and 'from' issue.
Same with/from issue. Note with/without underlying conditions columns. Again, dying with Covid = Covid death.
Your old, you die, probably with underlying conditions, thats just life. With or without Covid. With Covid your a stat, without, who cares.
Males die younger than females, who'dathunk. I like the 'known sex' at the top, very woke.
OK, this one may be arguable, but I'll leave it in for entertainment.
Point of all my posting, from the original above, is context. Everybody runs around brandishing stats, questionable stats, with no context. At least be honest, (I'm NOT aiming this at you but to this whole mess) and balance with context and I may respect the view.
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@YeOldeOke I get your point about the hype. If one had to remove the stats pertaining to the elderly and pre-existing conditions and focus only on individuals who were otherwise healthy and below 60, then there would be a true picture of deaths because of Covid and nothing else - as you said, dying of Covid as compared to dying with Covid.
Nevertheless, the overall stats are still relevant as a warning. The elderly or those with pre-existing conditions need to be extra careful not to get COVID, because their bodies have less resources to fight it - or any other virus, even ordinary flu. Thus, the likelihood of them dying is greater.
Just as with other medical problems. For example, a history of heart disease in the family means that you're more likely to develop heart problems, but knowing this, you can take extra precautions e.g. adjust one's lifestyle, eating habits, meds.
So, let us look at the stats for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions as a likelihood; as a warning to take extra precautions.
Nevertheless, the overall stats are still relevant as a warning. The elderly or those with pre-existing conditions need to be extra careful not to get COVID, because their bodies have less resources to fight it - or any other virus, even ordinary flu. Thus, the likelihood of them dying is greater.
Just as with other medical problems. For example, a history of heart disease in the family means that you're more likely to develop heart problems, but knowing this, you can take extra precautions e.g. adjust one's lifestyle, eating habits, meds.
So, let us look at the stats for the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions as a likelihood; as a warning to take extra precautions.
Thanks very much for the comments and graphs @YeOldeOke
I will go through them and study them when I get a chance and revert back if I have questions or comments.
I think this whole COVID pandemic is very scary. Reason for me is that my wife is immune compromised and has been battling with some severe health issues the past year.
I also became a father 2 years ago and I don’t want my wife to die because then my son won’t have a mother.
So the more I can understand about the risks that COViD presents the better for me.
In the meantime I will continue to err on the side of caution until I understand what’s going on better.
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I agree 100%, but it's a bit redundant isn't it. It is as you say, true for flu and a ton of other issues, why even have to state it. Not you, but generally all over the world, this 'look after your elderly' is stated as a sort of camouflage argument for the fact that normal healthy people up to about 60 have very little to nothing to fear of this virus, probably less than your common garden variety flu. The redundant statement is a screaming, flashing neon sign in giant letters: I have no valid argument for my position. These redundant statements have become the norm - outside of covid issues as well - for pushing terrifyingly weak arguments that millions succumb to.
You find it in a plethora of critical societal issues today, and is threatening the very basis of our civilization - no small issue. Blame the terrible education of the last 50-60 years.
ALL civilizations in ALL of human history have fallen. It's time we arrest the hubris that stupidity brings before it once again crashes. I watch this unfold, which is why I get so angry when I see it so blatantly paraded. I have a daughter I leave behind that may have to live through this.
Not looking for bloody ag shames, there are many millions worse off than me. I am in the very high risk group. If I catch it, I'm probably goners. No biggie, I had my life. But I'm not some healthy young heartless buck shouting let the old die.
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One thing that this episode has proven:
People with a below average IQ should be prevented from occupying leadership positions.
And that is all I have to say about that.
Regards
There are no more leaders. The closest thing you'll get to one is probably Trump, love him or hate him. There are only scumbags rising to the top, a result of the societal values promoted during the last 30-50 years. A bloody trophy for everyone.
Care for the weak, look after the weak, help the weak grow strong. But allow the weak to rise to the top and all of society crashes.
/Rant/s over. I'll get me nightgown and go have coffee.
Just remember, for some people financially the lock down does not have much effect, others are really struggling and the struggle might effect their arguments.
I worked at clients yesterday that used to live in a 4-5mil house in fancy estate. They in the Travel business and lost everything, they now living with their parents in a small room and their kids sleep in the tv room.
I worked at clients yesterday that used to live in a 4-5mil house in fancy estate. They in the Travel business and lost everything, they now living with their parents in a small room and their kids sleep in the tv room.
Kopdoek has spoken...
South Africa won’t rush to lift lockdown as it’s trying to avoid a ‘Black October’: Dlamini-Zuma
https://businesstech.co.za/news/gov...black-october-dlamini-zuma/?source=newsletter
South Africa won’t rush to lift lockdown as it’s trying to avoid a ‘Black October’: Dlamini-Zuma
https://businesstech.co.za/news/gov...black-october-dlamini-zuma/?source=newsletter
Covid-19 has shown itself incapable of killing this number of people since it preys on co- morbidities and not healthy immune systems. NDZ is scare mongering and should be prosecuted for spreading false information.
@Silver the house is 90 years old and the wooden floor in the bedroom was tired , there was a little round window up in one wall without reason , that's gone , a corner window is ALWAYS a pain to get covered properly . Thus - floors out , windows closed up , major sliding door with windows moving in ,
new floor with woodgrain tiles and a whole new electrical set up. Outside will be a small private patio and a ramp up to the main stoep. This will take about a fortnight to complete It's cramped and dusty, can't wait for the final result !
Ah that must be tough to endure the upside down while renovations are taking place
But I assume it will be worth it and hope it’s all good when done
Man I've missed a lot in this forum! Spent the last few days getting all my paperwork and the Mine premises in order for my big DMR inspection today.
Comorbidity is unfortunately the key factor here. If you look at something like HIV and AIDS, no one actually dies from either. They are just more susceptible to die from a generic illness than normal healthier people. "The most common comorbidities amongst patients with HIV include: diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease (CVD, e.g. hypertension), respiratory diseases (e.g. chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and pneumonia), and hepatic diseases (hepatitis B and C)."
No body has been blase about HIV/AIDS, we can't be blase about the SARS Cov-2 Pathogen (Covid-19, Corona, Kung-Flu, etc...). Especially in our country where we have an existing struggle with large numbers of the community being immunocompromised and/or living with MDR TB.
Just my humble opinion. Having access to both friends and family in the medical profession, it is clear that it is more than just "hype" or a "scamdemic".
The current lockdown regulations are very crippling for our economy, it is devastating, and it should not have gone this far. Our "leaders" have turned this crisis into a political power struggle. I still stand by my original statement that the initial Lockdown and the first extension of it was necessary for the health system to ready themselves, everything after that so far has been political mumbo-jumbo at best.
Main thing to take away from this is: Be vigilant, wear your mask and wash your hands regularly (Like you should have been doing in the first place) and maintain a social distance where possible.
Comorbidity is unfortunately the key factor here. If you look at something like HIV and AIDS, no one actually dies from either. They are just more susceptible to die from a generic illness than normal healthier people. "The most common comorbidities amongst patients with HIV include: diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease (CVD, e.g. hypertension), respiratory diseases (e.g. chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and pneumonia), and hepatic diseases (hepatitis B and C)."
No body has been blase about HIV/AIDS, we can't be blase about the SARS Cov-2 Pathogen (Covid-19, Corona, Kung-Flu, etc...). Especially in our country where we have an existing struggle with large numbers of the community being immunocompromised and/or living with MDR TB.
Just my humble opinion. Having access to both friends and family in the medical profession, it is clear that it is more than just "hype" or a "scamdemic".
The current lockdown regulations are very crippling for our economy, it is devastating, and it should not have gone this far. Our "leaders" have turned this crisis into a political power struggle. I still stand by my original statement that the initial Lockdown and the first extension of it was necessary for the health system to ready themselves, everything after that so far has been political mumbo-jumbo at best.
Main thing to take away from this is: Be vigilant, wear your mask and wash your hands regularly (Like you should have been doing in the first place) and maintain a social distance where possible.
This is terrible. The end is nigh. Batten down the hatches, hide your ass!!!!
Death toll 'due to Covid-19' 477,371 deaths as of June 23, 2020, 20:51 GMT.
Damn, that's a lot!!! Amper half a million nogal! Hide!!!!!! Give all the power to the scumbags!!!!! We jus wanna be safe!!!
Thats for about 6 months. If you were dying of a heart attack while having ye olde Covid, you are a Covid death. First Covid death in Texas was a 93 or 97 yr old man. Poor sod, he had his whole life ahead of him, sob.
Ave life expectancy in SA 64.1 yrs. The country with the most deaths USA ave LE 78.9 yrs. Ave Cov death age USA something like 75-85+
Whaddacrockoshit.
Oh yea. 6 months +- 477371 covid-chuck-everything-in-there deaths worldwide.
World population 7.8 billion.
Do the friggen math!!!!! Me rusty calculator says death rate 0.006% +- after 6+ crazy months.
Oooo the lockdown worked!!! We saved the planet!!!!
Go play in the traffic, I for one am gatvol.
Be safe out there comrades. Wear yer mask n wash yer paws! Dont want you to become one of the microscopic statistics now do we.
I find it funny that people get so obsessed about masks, the masks are mainly there to protect other people from catching the infection from you, which is you know kind of considerate and empathetic, a lot of cultures before this it's seen as respectful to wear a mask when infected with a respiratory pathogen so as not to spread to others, and those countries generally have lower flu transmission rates.
Again a lot has been said when comparing this to seasonal flu, and maybe there's also a point in that, if people were kinder and more respectful to each other, flu wouldn't spread as much and kill as much.
I'm also sort of glad hand washing has taken off, it's one of the ways things like hepatitis spreads, fecal matter under the nails and on the hands. Maybe if people you know were more caring about others and cleaned properly they wouldn't be a statistic to other diseases never mind SARS-COV-2.
While medical professionals are human beings and prone to the same flaws, they aren't as dumb as youtube would like you to believe, they can differentiate between a heart attack that was imminent and one that was caused by an infection, in fact a child died here that was infected and they specifically didn't count that death because an autopsy showed that it was due to other issues. It's the same as the autopsies showing massive CNS damage but also stating that most of the patients didn't die from that. Something that personally I would not like is CNS damage and then have to live out my life with. Another aspect that people haven't looked at because we don't know the full scope yet, is what will this do to my body if I survive?
I also am not quite understanding the "logic" of it only kills old people (which isn't true), what if those people did have two or so years extra to live, are they denied that, should we just euthanize everyone over 60 right now and save us the trouble because they were going to die "soon" anyways? Never mind that a lot of those "old" people were introduced to the virus via routes from people not at "high risk". Hell we are all going to die at some point, should we just write off murder, car accidents etc because they were all going to die? It's been well documented that mean global areas are experiencing way higher excess deaths at this time of year than usual. So while SARS-COV-2 hasn't killed off everyone, it's a new way to die, so people are still going to die as usual AND then more from this.
I get that the current situation is frustrating and even destructive to a lot of people, and there are groups taking advantage of it, but we need to learn to respect the disease for what it is.
It's good for the body, the mind and the soul! The beginning of a beautiful Bone Broth! SWAMBO and I love a good broth, especially in these colder months.
Ons that note... Less people I know that usually suffers from seasonal flu, never had the flu yet to date!
So this washing hands and wearing masks might have a possible positive effect all together.
I would hate to think they never really washed their hands properly before and personal hygiene has increased by just using extra disinfectant.
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