Lockdown diaries - COVID-19 matters!

[Grand Guru]

https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-08-31-south-africas-potential-new-covid-19-variant/

South Africa’s potential new Covid-19 variant
Extract:

Along with substitutions and deletions within the spike protein similar to those that increased the transmissibility and reduced the capacity of antibodies to fight previous variants of concern, C.1.2 exhibits a “concerning constellations of mutations” that could boost the variant’s infectiousness through its ability to reproduce itself.

 

[Grand Guru]

South Africa
Total cases: 2,78M Deaths 82 261

Worldwide
Total cases: 218M Deaths: 4,52M

The pandemic has directly claimed close to 5M lives so far and this is a seriously underestimated figure.... If you add the number of deaths caused indirectly by COVID19 due to lack of access to healthcare, I'm sure we can multiply the number by 3. Not far from WWII

 

[Adephi]

What’s going on with Israel? And what does it mean for the US? (And SA in the long run)

In my post Monday, many noticed the high case rate in Israel. Israel now has one of the worst rates of COVID-19 per million in the entire world.

For those of you following along, this should be a surprise given that Israel was a global leader in vaccine administration. In fact, their vaccination rate today is one of the highest in the world: 75% of the eligible population.

***So, why are they having a surge?***

Like everything in this pandemic, there isn’t an easy answer. But, I’m going to try…

The timing of their vaccination campaign is important. Compared to other countries, Israel dominated vaccine administration right out the gate; they vaccinated 50% of their eligible population by March 2021. Exactly 6 months later, this case surge in Israel began. The 6-month mark is notable because many studies have shown waning immunity at around 6 months.

The timing is also important to note because it’s the same time that Delta was introduced. So, Israel had the perfect storm with waning immunity and the introduction of a highly transmissible and more severe variant.

Importantly, though, waning immunity is only for mild and moderate disease. Vaccines still protect against hospitalization and death. The Israel Health Ministry highlighted this in a July report (see figure below).

Unfortunately, even July data is out of date during a pandemic. In August, COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU’s started increasing in Israel (but not at the rate of case growth). So, the real question was… are vaccines waning for severe disease too?

The Israel Health Ministry recently cleared this up. Last Thursday, they reported that the rate of serious disease (i.e. hospitalizations) among 60+ year olds that were unvaccinated (178.7 per 100,000) was 9x higher than serious disease among fully vaccinated. The rate of severe disease among unvaccinated <60 years (3.2 per 100,000) was 2x the rate than vaccinated. So, vaccines are still holding up for severe disease and death in Israel, which is fantastic.

The general population of Israel is young too. 28% of their population is under the age of 14 (as a comparison, 18% of the American population is <14 years). This means a large portion of their population is not eligible for the vaccine. When we take into account the total population of Israel (not just eligible population), only 62% of their total population is vaccinated. This leaves a lot of room for Delta cases.

***So how do we fix this?***

Pfizer’s data showed that antibodies in those ages ages 18 to 55 increase by 5x after getting a third dose of the vaccine. For people aged 65-85 years, they had 11x as many antibodies with the third dose. So, in Israel, a third dose was implemented in early August.

And, it looks like it’s helping a lot, especially among the older population. Yesterday, Gil Feldman shared a graph that showed Israel cases per 100K (y-axis) over time (x-axis). The graphs are split by age and vaccination status (red=unvaccinated; green=vaccinated). Two weeks after 3rd doses were implemented, cases started to beautifully diverge: cases among the vaccinated plateaued and cases among the unvaccinated continued to increase. We see the biggest difference for 60+ because they were first in line for a 3rd shot.

And we have even more updated data for those <60. On August 12, 15% of <60 year old’s received the third shot. The Raveh research lab at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem displayed a divergent pattern among them too.

***United States debate***
This has caused a lot of scientific debate in the United States as to whether (and when) we need a 3rd dose. If vaccines protect against hospitalization and death, are they really needed? Will vaccines eventually wane for severe disease? Do we need a 3rd shot for everyone or just the most vulnerable? Do we need it because of Delta or waning immunity or both? When is the best timing (5, 6, or 8 months)? In fact, this debate was briefly highlighted at an ACIP meeting on Monday (slides here). During that meeting, all that was concluded was that we need more data to make a decision. What the United States decides to do with a 3rd dose will be incredibly interesting to follow in the coming month.

Love, YLE

For all the graphs and data sources, go to my newsletter here: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/whats-going-on-with-israel-and-what

 

[Grand Guru]

 

[Grand Guru]

 

[Grand Guru]

The handbook of all the antivaxers

 

[vicTor]

So a friend messaged me today, asking about rashes/swollen toes, turns out in July we both had swollen toes on our left feet, that went purple, eventually fading but leaving some redness that's persisted, asked around and without telling other friends which feet, I found 6 other people who all experienced this on their left foot. It seems in line with covid toes. So it would appear that a large majority of people and probably myself had asymptomatic infection. Which is scary considering the precautions I personally have taken.

Also looking back we all had contact with people who had been physically ill but their tests had been negative.

I have this on my one toe, also on my left foot, very strange

 

[Feliks Karp]

I have this on my one toe, also on my left foot, very strange

If you don't mind me asking, have you had any contact with anyone that's been sick (either covid or not)? Mine happened before my vaccine, so I know it's not vaccine related, and I have read multiple reports on this foot thing, but nothing specific to the left foot, except either via friends or now you. Just seems bizarre that it's the left foot.

They look exactly like chillblaines, in fact most people including myself thought they were because of the cold weather at the time.

 

[Adephi]

 

[Adephi]

 

[vicTor]

If you don't mind me asking, have you had any contact with anyone that's been sick (either covid or not)? Mine happened before my vaccine, so I know it's not vaccine related, and I have read multiple reports on this foot thing, but nothing specific to the left foot, except either via friends or now you. Just seems bizarre that it's the left foot.

They look exactly like chillblaines, in fact most people including myself thought they were because of the cold weather at the time.

yes, my wife had Covid, in a household of 5, none of us got sick except her, but maybe I did get it thus the toe thing ?

 

[vicTor]

If you don't mind me asking, have you had any contact with anyone that's been sick (either covid or not)? Mine happened before my vaccine, so I know it's not vaccine related, and I have read multiple reports on this foot thing, but nothing specific to the left foot, except either via friends or now you. Just seems bizarre that it's the left foot.

They look exactly like chillblaines, in fact most people including myself thought they were because of the cold weather at the time.

sorry, mine also before vaccine, forgot to mention

my 14 year old son had these last year during winter, but on both feet, the Podiatrist wrote it off to chillblaines, so who knows

 

[Feliks Karp]

yes, my wife had Covid, in a household of 5, none of us got sick except her, but maybe I did get it thus the toe thing ?

Not sure! But its all super suspect!

 

[Adephi]

Discovery orders staff to get vaccinated

https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/health/discovery-orders-staff-to-get-vaccinated-20210902

Discovery will make Covid-19 vaccinations mandatory for all staff from the start of next year, following major global companies from banks to airlines in insisting on inoculation.

 

[Grand Guru]

Discovery orders staff to get vaccinated

https://www.news24.com/fin24/companies/health/discovery-orders-staff-to-get-vaccinated-20210902

Discovery will make Covid-19 vaccinations mandatory for all staff from the start of next year, following major global companies from banks to airlines in insisting on inoculation.

This is going to be a good test...

 

[Adephi]

This is going to be a good test...

When people put their moral right of choice ahead of their moral obligation to the health and safety of themselfs, their families and the people around them, this will get mandatory very quick.

 

[Grand Guru]

 

[Paul33]

View attachment 238319

These numbers just aren’t going down!!

 

[Feliks Karp]

This is going to be a good test...

Hehehe I know some one who works there, and a staff member already asked if they can take them to court if they refuse and basically it was said that they are covered legally so they are more than welcome to.

 

[Grand Guru]

Hehehe I know some one who works there, and a staff member already asked if they can take them to court if they refuse and basically it was said that they are covered legally so they are more than welcome to.

Yes they may use the Health and Safety Act as a legal cover but I think if it goes to Court, it’ll raise a national debate and obviously organized labour will get involved… it’ll quickly turn to a massive circus!

 

[Adephi]

Yes they may use the Health and Safety Act as a legal cover but I think if it goes to Court, it’ll raise a national debate and obviously organized labour will get involved… it’ll quickly turn to a massive circus!

The labour reps will have to prove that the vax is still experimental (FDA approval counted that out, I'm sure SAHPRA will anounce full approval soon as well), or the plethora of claims of side effects and illnesses caused by the vax. Unless the labour reps provide conclusive evidence they will be p!ssing against the wind. Would be interesting to follow.

 

[Feliks Karp]

Yes they may use the Health and Safety Act as a legal cover but I think if it goes to Court, it’ll raise a national debate and obviously organized labour will get involved… it’ll quickly turn to a massive circus!

We'll have to wait and see this article suggests it may get even bigger once a precedence is set:

https://mybroadband.co.za/news/gove...es-in-south-africa.html?utm_source=newsletter

 

[Adephi]

The world has gone bonkers..

 

[ARYANTO]

Jab #2 done and dusted - glad it's over for now ,will see if there is going to be a number 3.

 

[ddk1979]

Had my 2nd jab about 2 weeks ago.
Felt extremely nauseous most of the day - staff at the vac site warned us that this was a possible side effect

Then for the next 3-4 days felt like I was suffering from a bad case of the flu - fever, body ache and just feeling miserable.

Thankfully everything cleared up by day 5.

.